MODERN AND PROJECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF SEASONAL CYCLE OF ICE COVER IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC SEAS

V. A. Semenov; Семенов В. А.; E. A. Cherenkova; Черенкова Е. А.; T. A. Aldonina; Алдонина Т. А.

doi:10.31857/S2686739723600649

MODERN AND PROJECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF SEASONAL CYCLE OF ICE COVER IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC SEAS

Authors: Semenov V.A.¹^,2, Cherenkova E.A.¹^,2, Aldonina T.A.¹^,2
Affiliations:
1. Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences
2. A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences
Issue: Vol 511, No 1 (2023)
Pages: 112-118
Section: CLIMATIC PROCESSES
Submitted: 30.01.2025
Published: 01.07.2023
URL: https://vietnamjournal.ru/2686-7397/article/view/649879
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686739723600649
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/RZWGHG
ID: 649879

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Abstract

The characteristics of the sea ice conditions in the Seas of the Russian Arctic during the period of satellite measurements were studied and quantitative estimates of their changes in the second half of the 21st century were made based on the results of the CMIP6 climate models’ ensemble using aggressive and moderate scenarios of anthropogenic forcing, SSP585 and SSP245 respectively. It has been revealed that the dates of closing (DOC) of the sea ice cover and the length of the open water season (LOWS) are in general successfully reproduced by the ensemble of models. It is shown that DOC on average over the studied Seas will be observed about forty days later under SSP245 scenario and two months later under SSP585 scenario in 2061–2080 compared to 1981–2020 period. At the same time, the increase of LOWS is more than two and a half months under SSP245 scenario and almost four months under SSP585 scenario. The most significant changes in DOC are expected in the north of the Barents and Kara Seas, as well as in the northwest of the Laptev Sea: 2–2.5 months and 2.5–3 months later for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios respectively.

Keywords

dates of ice cover closing, length of open water period, climate models, satellite data, Seas of the Russian Arctic

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