The defense of the dissertation for obtaining the scientific degree of candidate of economics by Chu Thi Que [Saint Petersburg Mining University] with the theme “Formation and Assessment of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Coal Industry Development Scenarios”

Abstract

The defense of the theses on specialty 08.00.05 – Economy and management of national economy (economy, organization and management of enterprises, branches, complexes – industry) was held on 21.09.2022 at the Dissertation Council session GU 212.224.05 based on Saint Petersburg Mining University.

Full Text

The author suggests a flexible four-scenario approach to the development of national coal industry of SRV. Its use is grounded on the factors that do not give in to state regulation, such as the exhaustion of easily accessible supplies, increasing volume of coal imports when the situation in the market is uncertain, Vietnam’s energy dependence on coal resources, the necessity to fulfil obligations to meet the sustainable development goal (SDG), complex mining and geological conditions. The author mentions that underdeveloped structure of domestic alternative energy does not allow to fully replace traditional coal by other energy sources in middle- and long-term perspectives. The shortage of own coal resources causes the necessity to compensate it with the import of coal. Therefore, fuel and energy complex of the country becomes dependent on the price environment in external markets and the main consumers behavior. Scenario 1 provides for an increase in coal consumption in the energy sector in accordance with the Energy Master Plan 2021; scenario 2 takes into account the slower growth of the Vietnamese economy (due to the consequences of COVID-2019) and the unpredictability of the situation in the energy markets caused by the difficult political environment; scenario 3 provides for a reduction in the growth rate of coal consumption due to an accelerated transition to alternative energy sources; scenario 4 takes into account the possibility of reducing coal consumption in the energy sector due to lower growth rates of electricity production with an accelerated transition to alternative sources.

The introduction of the given, more flexible approach, unlike current ones, will allow a more efficient orientation in the given situation, supporting actual high rates of SRV industrial growth, the important role of the state in economy, the course to use own natural resources. In fact, the sphere of its use will be national corporations “Vinacomin” and “Dongbak”, their share in the SRV entire mining amounts to nearly 98 %.

Supervisor: Nevskaya Marina Anatol’evna, PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Chair of Economics, Organization and Management of the Faculty of Economics, St. Petersburg Mining University.

Leading organization: The National University of Science and Technology MISiS, Moscow.

Opponents:

Kaplan Alexey Vladimirovich, DSc (Economics), Leading Researcher, Research Institute for the Efficiency and Safety of Mining Production;

Plotnikov Vladimir Alexandrovich, DSc (Economics), Professor of the Chair of General Economic Theory and History of Economic Thought, Saint Petersburg State University of Economics Department

Main publications

1. Reyshakhrit, E.I., Nevskaya, M.A., Que, C.T. (2021) Analiz sostoyaniya, perspektiv i problem ugol’noy otrasli V’etnama [The Analysis of Condition, Perspectives and Problems of Vietnam’s Coal Industry]. Vestnik evraziyskoy nauki, 13 (1): 34.
2. Nevskaya, M.A., Thi, Q.C. (2021) Predposylki primeneniya stsenarnogo podkhoda k otraslevomu planirovaniyu (na primere ugol’noy otrasli V’etnama) [Prerequisites of the Scenario Approach Use to Sectoral Planning (the case of Vietnam’s coal industry)]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel’stvo, 12 (137): 136–141.
3. Nevskaya, M.A., Thi, Q.C., Vu, T.D. (2022) Formirovanie i otsenka stsenariev razvitiya ugol’noy otrasli V’etnama [The Formation and Assessment of the Scenarios of Vietnam’s Coal Industry Development]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel’stvo, 3 (140): 557–563.

The publication in the edition of Scopus, belonging to the international database and citation systems:

4. Nevskaya, M., Marinina. O., Que, T. (2021) Coal Mines in Vietnam: Geological Conditions and their Influence on Production Sustainability Indicators. Sustainability, 13 (21): 15.